$ yen

The daily candle finished as a Doji candle last night at midnight GMT. So far today the market action is inside yesterdays.
As the US holidays will result in markets becoming quiet I have decided to stand aside.

Good Trading

David

$ Yen

The $ Yen is showing a strong reverse divergence pattern which was today confirmed by a multiple outside bar chart pattern. I shall be looking for a low risk entry short of the $ yen tomorrow assuming the bar chart structure on the pair does not change between now and midnight GMT. Alternativly a sell stop can be placed at the low of today. This will take a significantly higher stop.
I will update when I see a low risk entry point.
Good trading
David

Yen

Well the Yen has broken up from the inside day that was charted yesterday. On many occasions a inside bar can break one way and then reverse aggressivly the other. No doubt I am hoping rather than trading. No harm done as our order was not touched. Lets leave the order in place to 2000 GMT and the REMOVE the sell stop. I will review the situation in the morning.

ACTION Remove the sell stop before going to bed.
Good trading
David

Yen

HI Everyone
Clearly i made a mistake. The sell stop in the yen is at 83.00 with stop loss at 83.50 and target at 82.00.
Sorry for the confusion. Looking at a lot of charts

David

$ Yen

Hi Everyone

I have been lazy in this blog, putting all my energies into http://www.whichwaytoday.com/ .

As you know i like wedges and i see a nice example in the $ yen. There is a good signal short on the daily chart using my reverse divergence studies. I have placed a sell stop at 93.00 with a stop at 93.50 looking for a 100 point target at 92.00. My risk is a total of 1% of my account.

Lets roll the dice.

David

Euro $

Good Morning

The chart above is a hourly view of the Euro$. The lines drawn are the same as I placed on the h4 chart last evening. The channel has held and the pair has broken the red line which defines the rsing wedge. Look to get short as that line is tested at about 1.2610. Like all wedges its against the trend on a hourly view. On the Euro the daily trend is down in my view.

I am trading in the www.whichwaytoday.com room all day.

I will post here when I enter the Euro$

Have a great trading day.

David

Euro $

Hi Everyone

I forecast a w5 up in the Euro today and it happened as shown above. The technical position is that the equidistant channel posted this morning is now acting as resistance and the pair has bounced off the upper line defining the channel , to the tick. I also observe a rising wedge with resistance just above the channel. For Elliott wave followers the ABC pattern in the chart above looks very corrective. Its hard to see any structure in A, but B is a classic 3 wave pattern and wave C is a rising wedge. It should be in a text book.

One things for sure. The Euro will make a decision for us,on the primary trend, in the next day or two. As far as I am concerned the daily trend in the Euro is still down. I will be watching closely.

Untill the dawn

Have fun and enjoy the football

David

euro $

Good morning

I present two charts of the euro $ above. The first is a daily view which shows a clear equidistant channel at work. The second shows the h4 view and presents a Elliott count of the impulsve wave which began last week. If my count is correct the Euro $ has a wave 5 of this impulsive wave to come fairly soon which would take the pair up to the resistance offered by the channel on the daily chart. This would be a move by the Euro $ from about 1.2550 to 1.2650. A very good way to start the trading week. Lets see what the market says at the London open.

I am trading all day at www.whichwaytoday.com but will post what I am doing at 800 GMT.

Good Trading

David

A very quiet day on the Forex markets

Hi Everyone
I suppose it should be no real surprise that today was a non event. In the www.whichwaytoday.com we traded twice ,with both trades being scratched at no loss. The trades that I reported on yesterday and still looking good. I will look for entries in the morning.
The euro yen is in the process of charting ot a massive multiple inside bar pattern and a break should start a strong and tradeable move. Momentum studies on the h4 and the trend as defined by the 89 sma predict that the Euro Yen should fall tomorrow. Lets trade the market not the forecast .
See you at the open in London
have a fun evening
David

Aud$

Hi Again
The Aussie is showing reverse divergence on the four hour chart. This means that there is a high probability that the trend down will restart in the near future. In terms of price action the H4 has made a 2 bar outside reversal and a evening star candle pattern. Both are indicating a short position in line with the 89sma and the stochastic.
I shall be looking for a suitable elegant entry short in this pair from the hourly market action on Monday morning.
Best wishes
David

Euro Chf

Hi Everyone

I missed the rally in the Euro Chf last week. There was a great trade on Friday last but my focus was elsewhere and I missed it.

The H4 ,Euro Chf, is looking overbought and is showing reverse divergence. The latter suggests that the down trend is about to start again. If we look at the H1 it is clear that the pair has made "3 drives to a possible top". The H1 has made a 2 bar outside reversal and I shall be looking for a reason, from Monday mornings price action, to get short of this pair. Remember its a holiday in the US and many traders on both sides of the Atlantic may have taken a long weekend.

David

Euro Yen

Hi Everyone
I have been fully focused on short term trading in the www.whichwaytoday.com live trading room and I am happy to report that we had a good months trading in June 2010.
Above I show a classic rising wedge on hourly EuroYen which has found resistance at a 50% retracement of the last major range. The stochastic is showing a reliable divergence pattern which adds to the probability of the wedge forcasting the move correctly.
I will look to get short of the Euro Yen on Monday morning.
A break below the low of 109.80 looks like a good entry using a SELL STOP order. At present the technical situation favours a stop loss above 110.33. THIS CAN EASILY CHANGE OVERNIGHT.
For those,who are eager,an order can easily be placed at the open on Sunday evening. I will look at about 0500 GMT on Monday morning.
Enjoy what is left of the weekend and remember its a holiday in the US on Monday.

David

Euro Chf

Hi Everyone

I have looked around the charts for hours and nothing is "talking" to me, save the Euro Chf.

I know that we ran for cover out of there on Friday morning. The market has retested the falling wedge and I shall be looking at it in detail for a trade on Monday morning. The chart is shown above.

Untill the morning

Good night

David

Euro Chf

Hi All

I post the chart of the Euro $. It looks bearish to me and I think this will effect my euro chf. Its a classic bear flag.

The Euro chf is trading at 1.3578. I am closing the position now.

Lets protect capital at all costs

David

Euro Chf

Hi Everyone
The Euro Chf trade is still running. It is exactly where we got in at yesterday. I am holding it for the moment. I will post again at 800 GMT if I feel the trade should be removed .

Have a great day
David

Euro chf

Hi Everyone
I entered the Euro Chf at 1.3572. Its trading at 1.3598 at present. It is fine. I will look at it at about 0500 GMT and post.
Have a great evening
David

Euro Chf

Hi Again
The target on the Euro Chf is 1.3775.
David

Euro Chf

Hi Everyone

The Euro Chf has confirmed a BUY signal . Its trading at 1.3572 and I have bought it at this level. The stop loss is 100 points at 1.3472.

Lets see how we do.

Good luck. I will update this at 1600 GMT.

David

Euro Chf

Hi Everyone

The euro swiss looks very oversold. Its falling in a wedge and showing bullish normal divergence on the h4. The hourly is about to confirm a buy signal at 1300 GMT.

I will shout if this confirms a buy signal.

Good trading

David

CAD

Hi Everyone
My analysis has proved much better than my trading in the Cad. It has moved as forecast. It moved very late in the day on Monday and Tuesday past for me. On both days the move got going at about 500 pm South African time and I just simply missed it.
My time forecast on Cable was for for a high to come in last weekend. The cable has sold off since then and is now in the process of what looks to be a "right shoulder" on the four hour chart.
Let me scan around the markets and I will report at 800 GMT.

Have a great trading day.
David

CAD

Hi Everyone

The Cad has confirmed support at the lower trendline of the wedge detailed earlier. It is late in the trading day and I will wait for a pullback overnight to enter the position. For those of you who have taken the http://www.whichwaytoday.com/ trading workshop the reversal pattern is a 2 bar outside reversal. Its shown above.

The Cad is also showing a classic Elliott pattern. In the other chart above you can see an impulse wave northwards. Within this, there are 5 waves which are quite easy, for once, to see. The market then pulls back in the classic ABC pattern as I have detailed. Those of you who have studied Elliott will see 5 waves within wave A, 3 waves within B and 3 waves in C. This is a very bullish pattern and if successful the target is a long way north. Lets focus on a decent entry tomorrow morning. I shall be looking at m15 and h1 charts for an entry.

Good Trading

David

CAD

Hi Everyone

Trades on the four hour chart are far and few between at the moment. I have heard a few traders blaming the lack of movement on Royal Ascot last week.

I include a potential trade setup on the Cad. Its falling in a wedge pattern and the market is at suppport.

The target line is shown. There is also a Elliott based motivation for the trade which I will include in a later post. I will be waiting for a candle pattern on the h4 to confirm the sentiment has changed here. Nothing done as yet.

Good trading

David

Thursday 17th June 2010

Hi Everyone
I am afraid that I picked the wrong time to start a blog on 2-3 day trades. For the last week they have been very scarce. For the last 10 days the major forex pairs have been in a range and I have not seen the type of high probability trade that I wish to report here. Dont worry the trades will come along when they are ready. Lets make sure we are.
I am still happy with my analysis on the Cable and Cad.
I traded twice today in the www.whichwaytoday.com live trading room and made 46 points in both. In the first I was guilty of taking my profits far to quickly.
Until tomorrow.
Have fun.
David

Forex Confusion

Hi Everyone.
Its been a confused day in the forex. Tom and I made a few points profit in the www.whichwaytoday.com live trading room.
The best thing to have done was to stand aside. Thats been my plan all day. The analysis from cable last night and the CAD on Sunday still stands.
The market is still making up its mind on whether the risk trade is on or off. Lets just wait and let it do just that.
Have a great evening.
I hope its warmer where you are, than it is in Johannesburg.
David

another forecast

Hi Everyone

I have done another Elliott based forecast on Cable . Its based on the four hour/ daily chart and again, as with the Cad, its favouring $ strength. Probably not tomorrow. Read below very carefully please.

Its far far too early to do anything and as I have shown, cable can easily punch to 1.5020. The equidistant channel that I have drawn, shows resistance at the 50 % retracement at 1.4870. Cable can easily hug the channel up to 1.5020. That is a mighty round number. At the o.618 level it would be a perfect Gartley 222 short.

Those of you who have taken my class will be able to construct my TIME LINE. It says the top of this thrust up, ie wave C, if my count is correct, will occur at 0400 GMT on the 18th of June.

This points to the 0.618 retracement at 1.5020 being THE LEVEL. Lets trade the market not the forecast. Trading the four hour chart needs lots of patience. I was guilty of rushing the CAD yesterday and paid the price.

Anyway its late here in South Africa and very cold. Its a holiday here tomorrow but I will be trading the morning session at least.

I am off to bed .

I will be back at 0800 GMT

Have fun

David

June 15th 2010

Hi Everyone
I still dont see any high probability setups around using the four hour chart. The market is deciding and cant make up its mind as to whether the risk trade is back on again or off. Lets just watch for another four hour candle.
Nothing to do
best wishes
David

June 15th 2010

Good Morning
The forex markets are unsure this morning. The move up of yesterday looks in doubt with Sovereign debt issues to the fore, once again, in Europe.
I see the CAD looks much better this morning for a long position. I am glad that I got yesterday as we would have been stopped for the whole risk amount. Less to make up in my next trade. I am leaving the next trade until at least 1200 GMT.
Have fun
David

performance

Well that poor trade takes the performance down to a mere 35 points for 10 days trading. That,s in the nature of the game.
I wont trade again today and will be back online tomorrow morning.
Have Fun
David

$ Cad

Hi Guys. The $ cad is not going well. I entered at 1.0328. Its trading at 1.0265 now and i am closing the position for a loss of 63 points
best wishes
David

$/CAD

Good Morning
Its 800 GMT. The $ cad has confirmed a long trade as per my analysis yesterday.
I am buying the $/Cad at 1.0328 . Stop loss 1.0228 . The stop is 100 points. This means the bet size is 2.50$ per point .

Good Luck
David

The week ahead - 14th -18th June 2010

H4

D1

Weekly

Hi Everyone.

Last week was a difficult week for the 2-3 day trades that I am aiming to catch in this Blog. The markets in my opinion were making corrective type patterns against the prevailing trend. I posted a chart on Friday morning of the Euro$ which seems to have broken down as predicted. I shall look for a elegant entry on Monday morning at 800 GMT. The Eva Mendez pattern as presented on Friday is still intact and a stronger dollar looks very probable.

The $ Cad looks as if a similar trade is setting up. I am going to detail this below as it will give you an indication as to how I look at the various timeframes to spot a high probability trade.

On the weekly chart the $/CAD has made a 5 wave pattern up the chart, taking out the last significant high, followed by a 3 wave pattern down. The market then stops and consolidates at a .786 retracement of the 5 wave upmove, in what looks to me as a partially completed inverted head and shoulders reversal.

On the daily chart, the more recent action shows that the pullback over the last few days is a 3 wave structure exactly to a .618 retrace of the total up swing. I also notice a Eva Mendez setting up, with no confirmation, on the daily. Those of you with experience in Fib and geometry will also spot that the market has stopped its fall at a 0.786 retrace of the range measured from the last significant low. Thus we have a confluence of Fib support measured from two differing ranges. There is also a text book Gartley 222 in process.

The next chart is the four hour, from which I propose to take a signal, if it comes. In the four hour chart I have tried to show the confluence of Fib support, but I admit the chart is noisy for the untrained eye. Also I observe my favourite pattern the falling wedge which is bullish. I have marked the target line from the falling wedge, which approximates the old high. This is 500 points away.

I dont see any signal from the h4 as yet. I will be looking for a bar chart or a candle pattern to enter the trade. The Fib support is about 60 pips lower and I would expect the market to test that again before any turn. Lets just wait for what I hope will be a big trade.

Lets trade the market next week, not the forecast

Enjoy whats remaining of the weekend

David

Morning June 11th 2010

Good Morning

I didnt post yesterday as there was nothing to do on this or any other timeframe. The markets seem to be beating out a corrective pattern and within this there is very little order.

I think that the euro $ is at resistance and should fall from here. I havnt got any signal and will do nothing untill I get such. I include the Eva M which is setting up at present. NB nothing done.

I will be back at 800 GMT

Have fun

David

Morning June 10th 2010

Good morning everyone.
The Blog is 98 points ahead in one week of trading. Yesterday was disappointing. I got caught on the "wrong side". I have scanned throught the markets and dont see any high probability trades at this point. The volatility in early morning trading in the Euro$ has been hugh.
Lets see how it looks at 800 GMT
Have a good trading day

David

Sterling Yen

Hi Guys
As you have seen I have been stopped out of Sterling Yen for a 90 point loss.
It was a trade I took based on a hourly chart. Anyway no looking back.
I will be back looking for longer term trades from the four hour chart tomorrow morning.
Have a good evening.
David

sterling Yen

Hi Guys
I have been filled short in Sterling yen

Good luck all
David

performance

I am up 188 points since last thursday. I will work out the portfolio increase when I get time this evening
Have fun
David

sterling yen

The sterling yen stop is 100 points to make the sums easy. 1% of our account is 250$. the bet size is then 250/100. This is 2.5$ per point .
Sorry forgot to say that .
So in summary a SELL STOP in sterling yen to sell if the market gets below 131.80. Stop of 132.70 if filled . Target of 130.70 ..

Good luck
David

sterling yen

Hi Guys ...
Place a sell stop in sterling yen to sell if the market goes down to 131.80 ...stop upon entry 132.70..Target 130.70 ...

good luck .
David

Morning June 9th 2010

Good Morning everyone.

The sterling yen trade moved in our direction very fast yesterday afternoon. I expected in Elliott speak a C wave up which didnt materialise. When ,what I clasify as windfall profits, occur, I pretty much always take them.

Sterling yen is still sitting on the nexkline from the h4 head and shoulders reversal and it still looks as if it wants to break. The neckline is shown above.

Presently the market is charting out a Arrow pattern for those who have taken our classes in S Africa or London.

Lets see how it looks at 800 GMT when hopefully all the morning games are over.

Have fun

David

Sterling Yen

Hi All
The Sterling Yen has given us windfall profits this afternoon.
I am closing this position now at 130.80 and booking a 140 point profit in the trade.
I hope you made some. There is a long way to go in this trade. I will reenter tomorrow.

Have a great evening.
I will report again tomorrow morning

David

sterling Yen

Hi Guys
In the heat of the moment i forgot to wish you all luck with the trade. I will look at it and comment at 1600 GMT
best wishes
David

1200 GMT June 8th 2010

Sterling yen has broken the M15 neckline in style and nearly broken the H4 neckline as shown above. If this goes there is a 500 point downside target.

I am looking to the M15 for an exact entry. Its trading now at 132.20.

The trade needs a 150 point stop.

Remember the bet size will be 1% of your acccout divided by 150. This accout is 25000% plus a tiny amout from Friday. 1% is 250 $. Thus my bet size is 250/150 dollars per point.

I am selling the pound yen at 132.17 with the position size as above with a stop at 133.70

900 GMT June 8th 2010

Hi Guys
There were no trades confirmed at 0800 but the market has moved quickly in the last hour. Please log in at 1200 GMT as I feel we will have a trade from the four charts confirmed at that time. I traded the pound yen intraday but got out much too early. It was a profit and I suppose I should be happy about that.
Best wishes
David

June 8th 2010

Good morning

The biggest problem in trading the longer time frames is dealing with periods of inactivity such as yesterday. I personally traded the shorter timeframes twice yesterday and reported both in the http://www.whichwaytoday.com/ live trading room. The first trade was scratched at breakeven and the second in tha afternoon made 30 points. There were no longer term trades.

This morning my analysis shows that the $ and Yen are strong showing that the risk aversion apparent in the market is still around.

On paper short the Euro Yen makes the most sense, with short the Pound Yen and short the Euro$ coming next. This analysis uses my Relative strength Matrix technique which I teach in the courses in SA and London. It answers the question "What to trade" not when to trade.

The Pound Yen has broken and tested a channel on the h4 and is presently charting out a head and shoulders reversal on the m15 ,which HAS NOT broken as yet. The charts are shown above. The Yen crosses have the personality of very upset ex wives. Be careful. I am waiting until 800 GMT for any entries.

Speak at 800 GMT

Have Fun

David

evening of June 7th 2010

Hi Guys
Its been a quiet day on the forex markets. In the Four hour chart strategies that I follow there are no high probability trades tonight. Lots of marginal trades but i intend to ignore those. Dont worry the good ones will come to us .

Have a great evening
David

euro$

Hi Guys

Above is a 30 minute chart of the Euro $ . If you look at the chart i sent this morning you will see that I marked in a wave 4 and then a wave 5 down to the target of 1.1805 odd. In the above we have Reverse Divergence on the m30 but there remains the possibility of another leg up which would be withing the rising wedge formation shown. Its trading at 1.1961 presently, with a target as presented early this morning of 1.1800. The time taken for the retracement is exactly 62% of the time taken to fall on Friday. That bodes well for a fall this afternoon.

I am watching the market and will post any trade.

There are no obvious trades on the h4 chart.

have a good trading afternoon

David

$ yen

Hi guys

This is a useful pattern in the $ yen. Support has become resistance. Lets wait for a confirmation bar at 1200 GMT.

I dont see anything to trade this morning on the longer timeframes. In fact the forex market looks quite dead after Fridays action.

David

June 7th 2010

Good morning everyone.

The 1.618 extension of the last pull back on the Euro$ is at 1.1800. I think the pair is heading there but have no new signal which gives me an elegant entry. I see similar patterns in cable and in the EuroYen as well. I will wait to 800 GMT and look for a signal.

Presently I observe that cable gapped down at the open and has filled that gap as I write. Those who held my trade from Thursday evening should be very happy.

The G20 meeting came out with a comment on quantitative easing and I am interested to see how this is taken by the market at the London opening. No Action.

Until 800 GMT.

If I get an entry signal from the hourly chart before then, I will shout, although thats not the objective of this blog.

Have a good trading day

David

The final bell on Unemployment Friday

Hi Everyone.

I have been watching the market action around the NFP for a long time. This afternoon when I returned from the gym it was amazing to see the hard move down in advance of the report. That was quite new to me . I got out of the cable short as that event spooked me a little. In hindsight it was the wrong thing to do. Again my analysis has proved to be better that my resolve to sit.

The daily chart as I posted yesterday was shouting sell me. There will be plenty of trades in this campaign of mine. I hope that you got a few pips today. I know some pulled down the stop to entry as I got out and thats just great. Well done guys .

There are two falling wedges on the Euro$. One on the h4, which looks to have been broken and the situation on the m15 chart above. The upper purple line is the trendline which defines the wedge on the h4. If I were a betting man I would bet that the market will rally on Monday morning to the upper purple trendline on my chart. Lets just chill and enjoy the weekend. I will shout hard and loud when its time to do something.

Remember my objective is to call trades which last a few days. I plan to enter with a small 1% position size and add as it goes our way.

Later in the weekend I will post charts on the probable trends next week.

Have fun

David

Unemployment Friday

Hi Again
I had to be brief in the last post to get my decision on cable out there asap. When we take this live I think a Text service will be necessary. We are still pondering on that. Any views would be welcomed.
The trade made 48 points and I am pleased to start with a winner even if its a tiddler. I would normally let them run but felt it important to bank this windfall profit ahead of the months biggest report.
I wont trade on the Blog again untill Monday morning.
Have a great weekend.
Tom and I will be trading in the www.whichwaytoday.com room this afternoon.
Have fun
David

Cable trade

Hi Everyone
The cable trade has moved in my favour. Its trading now at 1200 GMT at 1.4562. It seems the reason for the fall is a profit warning at a French bank. The latter is unconfirmed.
I am banking this windfall small profit in advance of the NFP report. Its a small profit but still a profit. Done exactly at 1200 GMT .
First one under the belt
David

Unemployment Friday 800 GMT

Hi again
Well my cable trade is still underwater and trading at 4632 at the moment. Its just fine.
The Euro$ is still above the 1.2150 critical level. On the shorter term charts the Euro is climbing slowly after yesterdays hard fall. This creep up the chart looks very corrective to me. As i write the Euro is toying with the overnight high. Similarly the Euroyen has fallen from resistance yesterday and presently is charting out a weak corrective upthrust.

I am holding the cable trade with the stop as per the trade initiation and will make a final decision as to whether I will hold through the NFP at 1200 GMT.
Apart from that lets just chill.
Have a good morning.
David

4th June 2010-Unemployment Friday

Good Morning everyone

My feeling that I would get a better level to short the cable was correct. I am short from 4610 with the market now trading at 4624. Just fine.

The Euro$ tried to break down through the inside bar pattern last night but failed. Without doubt this is waiting for the news this afternoon. While highly paid analyst,s pour over the details of the US unemployed, I have no doubt that the unemployed are safely tucked up in bed.

A h4 close below 1.2150 would be a signal to look for an entry short. If we get that sign, I shall probably only look for an entry next week. I include the Euro$ chart and the multiple inside bar/candle pattern.

I will chat again at 800 GMT.

Good Trading

David

1600 GMT June 3rd 2010

Hi All
I posted a cable chart on the blog this morning and went into the rationale of shorting cable in the www.whichwaytoday.com trading room. We made 5 trades in the room today. All had modest objectives and we has 4 winners and a breakeven trade. The techniques we employ and teach remain significantly more robust that our strength to put them into action.
There is a Eva Mendez on the daily chart of cable and the four hour chart has turned down.
I wish to short this pair in advance of the NFP which may be dumb but thats what the chart says.
As I have been writing the cable has fallen hard. The euro$ and $ chf are consolidating within the multiple inside bar patterns mentioned earlier today. The stop on this trade in cable will be at 1.4750. I use a 1% position sizing model so 1% of my 25000$ is 250$. This is the most I will lose on any trade. The stop will be approximately 150 points if I enter now, This means my bet size will be 250/150 $ per point. Thats about 1.50$ per point or 1.50 pounds per point if you are trading in that currency. I have no doubt that the cable will rise overnight and that we will get a better fill in the morning.
The rally in cable has begun as I write. As I write its trading at 1.4610 bid . I am shorting it at this level with a stop at 1.4760.
As calculated above the bet size is 1.50$ per point on a 25000$ account.
Anyway thats the first trade initiated and thats a good feeling. Any reading this later should be able to get a better fill. If you get a worse fill then remember the stop needs to be at the same place. Just trade a smaller position. Whats the hurry. You can only drink one beer at once.
The key level for this trade is 1.4550.
have a great evening
David

High Noon GMT June 3rd 2010

Hi again
Its probably not been the best time to start this blog, in the run up to NFP tomorrow afternoon. Again the Euro$ and $CHF are stuck in a random consolidation. Cable is still setting up. The EuroYen is at the top of a channel but has not as yet given a signal. Lets sit on our hands for another while in this timeframe. In the www.whichwaytoday.com we have had four trades today. Three winners and one breakeven trade. We are very happy with that. Untill 400 GMT.

Have fun
David

June 3rd 2010 0800 GMT

Hi. the euro$ and $ chf are still stuck within multiple inside bar patterns. I like the look of a trade in cable but its a few bars to early as yet . No high probability trades on the h4 chart to report.

During the UK night there was a trade long in Euro yen, on the h4. I missed it. There will be lots more.

For those who have done my course, I include the Eva Mendez possible trade short in cable

I wil be back at 1200 GMT

have fun

David

Morning of June 3rd 2010

Hi Everyone
Nothing has changed much on the h4 time since last evening. I will update and post any possible trades at 800 GMT.
Cable is showing a potential Eva Mendez trade short which needs confirmation on the h4. Thats a few bars away. Untill 800 GMT.
Have a great day

David

evening round up

Hi Again
The forex market is making a decision for us. Its the run up to the June NFP report. The market is expecting a good number. It would not be strange to see the Euro$ to meander sideways untill then. At the moment the euro and its sister the $chf is within a MULTIPLE INSIDE bar chart pattern. The pattern has now 7 times 4 hour inside bars. We just need to let it break and go with flow. From the hourly chart I was expecting a bounce this morning which did not occur although in the www.whichwaytoday.com room we still got out at a small profit. Profits are like aeroplane landings. Anyone you can walk away from is a good one. In terms of the h4 chart in Euro $ there is nothing to do this evening. The situation is the same for the $ CHF. Any trade against the dollar is strongly against the daily and h4 trend as measured by my 89sma. We need to be careful to say the least.
Cable is trending up on the H4 but down on the daily. The rally on the h4 over the last week seems corrective to me and it looks weak. There is a Doji candle on the daily, assuming nothing changes between now and midnight GMT. This is one hell of an assumption. No action in cable.
$yen is at the top of a corrective channel in my opinion. Apart from selling this resistance I see no confirmed trades in this pair. In the majors there is no action to be taken.
Time for a beer.
I will report in the morning. It will be brief as thats a busy time for me. However it will to to the point and hopefully useful and waffle free. Please give me a shout on traderdavy@gmail.com if you have any sujjestions on how this blog should be played.
Have fun
David

The new season begins

I am been busy trading and travelling and sadly this trading blog has been overlooked for about two months. I am determined to get back into the swing of posting my longer term trades as they occur. These are mostly taken from the four hour chart. Sometimes i cannot resist a trade taken from the daily chart. Its these trades that i wish to report in this blog. I dont want to post lots of charts and meaningless analysis. The net is awash with that material and lots of "ifs" and "buts". I will post my analysis as briefly as i can and report on my entry levels, stop and position sizing.
The four hour chart starts at 0000 GMT and makes new bars/candles at 0400, 0800, 1200 , 1600 and 2000 GMT. Most trades occur at 0800 GMT and 1200 GMT. To make this work I shall try and post first thing, 800 GMT, 1200 GMT and 1600 GMT. First thing for me is about 0500 GMT. On many days this will be brief, if there are no high probability trades available. This is the case this evening. If I am travelling or conducting a seminar I will post that as well. The market will be there when I get back. These are trades that i take myself and if my years in this have taught me anything useful, its patience. If you havnt got patience to wait for the plums then you are in the wrong line of work. If you wish to trade more aggressivly the www.whichwaytoday.com trading room will be of much more use to you.
I use a 1% position sizing model in my trading. Very conservative I know, but thats me. There are old traders and bold traders, but no old bold traders. I will start with a 25000$ account and see how we go. Each trade will have its own unique stop loss based on the volatility of the chart under scrutiny. I will work out the bet size for each trade, the entry point, stop and target.
It will be fun.

Have a great evening.
David

Sterling Yen

I entered the long position in Sterling Yen at the conclusion of the candle pattern to which I referred in yesterdays post. This was at 1600 GMT. The candle pattern confirmed as a valid morning star.

The move up is far from convincing and on the hourly chart looks more corrective than impulsive.

My entry was at 142.85 and the market is now at 143.38

I dont like the market action on the hourly and have decided to take this small profit.

www.whichwaytoday.com starts again tomorrow Thursday at 630 UK time .

Good Trading

Sterling Yen

The four hour chart of sterling yen looks as if it can ressume its climb northwards this afternoon. The price is making a rising bottom above the 89sma while the stochastic is making a marked lower bottom. If this candle finishes as above, then it would be a very bullish morning star pattern. This would be a buy signal.
I am waiting for this .

Good Trading

Sterling Yen

On Friday i felt that the Euro$ had still some upside and this proved to be the case. The chart shows that the Euro$ can easily get to the 38% retracement of the last daily range at about 1.3870.

I am however looking at Sterling yen this morning. The trade has not fired as yet but it has the kind of risk to reward ratio that excites me.

The daily chart of Sterling Yen shows a reverse divergence setup short. On the h4 it is clear that the market is charting out a rising wedge pattern which has stopped at a 50% retracement of the last range. This is a dangerous and very tricky animal and I am not discounting another push up before a probable fall.

I am waiting for a confirmation pattern from the bar chart. The target is about 500 points south.

I will post if I observe a signal.

Good Trading

Euro$ and Cable

Good Morning

The Euro$ has risen as suggested yesterday in a very tight range towards resistance as defined by the channel on the daily chart.

The Gpb$ also gained yesterday and has charted out a corrective rising wedge pattern on the hourly chart. The market stopped at a 0.618 retrace of the last range.

I am looking for confirmation on both pairs of a trade betting that the $ will strengthen today.

If I get a signal i will report it here during the day.

Good Trading

Euro $

I have shown the channel which seems to be defining the down move in the Euro $ pair. In Elliott wave talk i feel that we are in a wave 4 flat corrective wave and that a small rally to resistance will take place, prior to a last wave 5 down . This should get the Euro $ down to about 1.31. The channel resistance is at about 1.3730 and i would expect this rally to happen today. Its not a move that i would trade in this forum but will be waiting for a chance to get short above 1.3700. When i get a valid signal i will report it here.

The Dow stock index looks very weak and has charted out a very bearish rising wedge in the past few weeks. I would expect the Dow to fall soon and the Euro$ to fall in tandem. Stock market weakness and dollar strength.

Good Trading

Cable Falling wedge

Last week was a whirl. I got stuck at Cape Town airport on my way to George. It seems George was closed because of rain and fog. For non SA readers George is a town not a person.

On Thursday and Friday i was conducting a seminar in forex trading in Canary Wharf, London.
Tom and I had a very good week in the www.whichwaytoday.com trading room.

The cable has fallen in a wedge pattern which defined exact support on Friday afternoon.
I shall be looking for a long entry on weakness on Monday morning if the technical situation remains the same . I will report it here as it happens.

Have a great trading week.

cable and flu

I unfortunately suffered a relapse of the flu that struck me last week. In the four hour time frame, that i report here, there has not been a lot of opportunity. The cable looks as if it wants to break south but that 1.56 level has been teasing me for two weeks now.

I shall wait for it to break and test and then look for an entry. I was caught by the 1.56 level twice last week.

Good trading today.

Holidays

I have been unwell with a severe bout of flu. Feeling much better today but its a holiday in the US and in China. Its hard to say if we will get a move or not this morning but i would expect that any price action activity will dry up after the conclusion of the London session.

I shall be on the lookout for a trade on the four hour chart.

Good trading.

Euro Yen

Its not been the easiest day in the forex markets. The euro yen trade I placed this morning has done nothing positive all day. In fact it has underperformed the euro $.

It is now trading at 123.37 which is 17 points above my short entry . This is a paper loss of about 6 points on a normal position size.

I dont like the trade anymore and have decided to scratch the trade. It the first loss I have made here but its a small loss.

Closing Euro Yen short at 123.37

Have a good evening. I am still under the weather from flu and i hope to be firing on all cylinders tomorrow.

Good Trading

Euro Yen

The last few days have not been easy for two reasons. Firstly all the major forex pairs have been charting out a corrective wave against the trend . Secondly i have picked up a bug and feel terrible. I probably got it on the plane back from London on Saturday night.

Is the corrective wave over and the trend down is about to start once more .

The Euro yen is showing a reverse divergence pattern and it has also produced a very high hit rate bar chart reversal pattern.

I am shorting it at 123.20 with a stop at 124.40. This is 120 points of risk and i am using a 1/3 of my normal size . This is a risk of 40 full points .

Good luck today.

Euro$

I ended up doing nothing on this blog on Friday as the NFP report was announced. The Elliott count as presented many times showed that a bounce was probable. Market action was still showing that the Euro$ pair was falling after an initial break up. I decided to do nothing as both forms of analysis were out of tune.

No points lost or made.

I have been travelling and am back in Johannesburg this morning. A bit weary but ready to trade.
All the short term trades on the 15 min chart and below will be conveyed on the www.whichwaytoday.com site from 0630 GMT. Just go to the site and ask for a free trial.

If i see a trade on the hourly or four hourly chart i will post it here. Nothing as yet.

Trade well

Euro$

The analysis that i posted yesterday is still valid but the levels are miles out.
I still think that a bounce or corrective wave up in the Euro$ is going to happen soon.

I did not find any entry point and am going into the NFP report flat.

On www.whichwaytoday.com we have taken quite a few short term trades which are reported as they happen.

Good trading.

Euro $

As of 2.10 pm GMT I have still have not initiated a open long position on the euro$. My analysis in the last post is still intact. Above I have included a divergence pattern which adds weight to the analysis. It is a trade based on the four hour chart and ideally the trade needs confirmation from a bar chart pattern/candle pattern on the four hour chart. This is still a few bars away and I may only get a signal tomorow.

If you have done my course you will recognise the pattern above as a Halle Berry. Its against the trend while Eva Mendez is with the trend. As always I am reporting short term trades at www.whichwaytoday.com

Lets be patient

Good Trading

Euro$

I feel that the wave 2 up in the euro $ is about to begin. This will be a wave 2 of C as explained in other posts. The rate decision and talk are about to commence. I am looking at a long position but wont do anything until after the news. Its very, very, against the trend but wedges always are.
Good Luck

I will post if i see anything.

CABLE

The cable is trading at 1.5980 . I entered at 1.6035 and the stop is at entry.
We are approaching the lower trendline of the channel I posted earlier this morning.
I am going to the gym which is always a good reason to bank a few points.

I am banking now at 1.5981
Thats 55 points on a 1/2 position. This is 27 full points and another winner.

Lets try again tomorrow. Off to the gym. I may trade again today at the US open.

Have a great trading day

Cable

The cable is going my way. I entered at 1.6035 and it is now at 1.5999. I wish to pull the stop to entry. Another free bet.

Good Trading

cable

I have just shorted the Cable at 1.6035 with a stop of 1.6090 . This is based on the Gartley i sent earlier and confirmation from the 30 min chart . It is based on a 1/2 position so i am risking 55/2 points .This is 27 full points .

Cable

For those of you who have been to my seminar, the Gartley pattern will be familiar.I am looking at the pattern on the hourly chart of cable above . Nothing done as yet . If I trade this pattern it will be a short position. REPEAT NOTHING DONE.

Good Trading

Euro$

The euro$ has risen from where i bought it a few hours ago. The move up is far from impressive and not the normal explosive break associated with a falling wedge.
Those who have done my seminars will be aware that there is a Eva Mendez trade building up in the opposite direction, which is short the Euro $ .

For this reason I dont want to hold the trade overnight and am closing the position at 1.3968.

This is 31 points of profit on a 1/3 position size ie 10 full points.

It is a small profit but a profit. Those of you who have followed this blog, will know that no losses have been booked in over one month of trading.

Lets try again in the morning

Euro$

The target on the euro$ trade is 1.4125. Its a swing trade which may last untill tomorrow if all goes well.

We report short term trades in forex and indices on www.whichwaytoday.com They are reported as they happen and frequently last for only a few minutes.

Good Trading

Euro $

The Euro dollar would seem to have made a falling wedge which is should break upwards. This is the end of w5 of w5 of 1 of C. Quite a mouthful I know.

For this reason I am buying the Euro$ at market 1.3937 with a 120 point stop on a 1/3 position size. I am risking 40 full points with the stop placed at 1.3817. Lets throw the dice.

Good trading.

cable

I have been stopped out of cable for no loss.


Lets try again tomorrow .

cable

I shorted the cable this morning at 1.5920 with a stop of 1.6005. Its gone well and the market is now trading at 1.5859
I now wish to pull the stop down to entry at 1.5920.

Another free bet. The target is 1.5780.

Good Trading

Cable

The cable has just made a 2 bar outside reversal on the four hour chart.

The trend is down and the next target is 1.5780.
The market is trading at 1.5920. I am shorting the cable at market with a stop of 1.6005 on 1/3 position size.

I am risking 85/3 full points . This is a risk of 28 full points .

Good trading

cable

Tom Hougaard and i were delivering a Forex trading seminar at Canary Wharf in London on Thursday and Friday last. We traded in the www.whichwaytoday.com live trading room while sharing the speaking duties. I liked the look of the cable short on Friday afternoon but did not get time to post it here. There will be plenty of time to get aboard, what looks like a big move south in cable, on Monday morning.

Those of you who have done my course should be able to see the two bar outside reversal short on the cable four hour chart. This pattern successfuly traded the GDP number, which was much better than expected.

Have a great weekend. I will be posting from London and returning to South Africa at the end of next week.

Cable

I have been stopped out of cable at entry. No profit no loss.

Busy looking for opportunity.

Good Trading

Cable

Its just past the FOMC meeting where they decided to do nothing as expected. The cable is trading down at 1.6152. We entered at 1.6214 which represents a healthy profit . I am pulling the stop to entry and letting it run overnight.
Another free bet.

Have a great evening.

Cable

It seems i cannot subtract.
The risk on the cable trade is in fact 76 points on a 1/3 position size, which is 25 full points of risk.

Its pretty much where I got aboard and is now trading at 1.6216.

Good Luck.

Cable

The cable neckline that I put in the last post has not broken and the market has rallied to a 0.786 retracement of yesterdays move down.

The pattern is called a Gartley 222. It is bearish.

For this reason I wish to sell cable at 1.6213 This is where it is trading as i write. Place a protective stop at 6289. This is a risk of 73 points . Its very much against the flow and i am going to trade it also in 1/3 of my normal size. This is a risk of 24 full points . The initial target is the neckline at 1.6100 as shown in my last post.

This is the most speculative trade I have taken so far in this blog. I cannot see any other opportunity.

Good Trading.

CABLE

If this level goes there is a 430 point target in cable . Stay tuned .
I will sell the break and test of the neckline .
Good Trading

Euro $

I have let the euro $ run all morning and its refused to go below 1.4050. There seems to be a change in the indices but its early days there.

We are short from 1.4150 and its now trading at 1.4055. There is news coming.

Thats 95 points on a 1/3 position size which equates to 31 full points .

I am going to the gym now and thats as good a reason to bank as any.

I am closing the position which is my 8th winner in a row on this blog now at 1.4055.


good trading

euro $

The Euro $ is trading in a tight range this morning. I am as confident as one can be in this game that is going to break down and my target of 1.3950 for this w5 of w5 of 1 of C remains the same .
The market is at 1.4090 at the moment and i am sitting with the stop at entry.
I missed the trade in cable this morning. I felt that the news out of the UK would push it up before the fall. In fact the GDP number out of the UK was much worse than expected and it fell without the writer aboard.

Good Trading

Euro $

I watched the Euro $ go sideways all day yesterday and was tempted to scratch the trade many times . The four hour chart has finally proven its worth and the market broke as forecast by a coupling of Eva Mendez and Ralph Elliott. The mind boggles.

My entry short was 1.4150 and the euro$ is now trading at 1.4080. Lets get the stop to entry and sit a while. The old low is at 1.4027.

We now have a free bet .

Have a great trading day.

Euro $

The Euro $ has confirmed a short position at 800 am GMT. Its not a strong signal but i intend to take it as its in sync with my Elliott based count .

I am short Euro $ from 1.4150 stop 1.4270 on a swing trade looking for a target of 1.3950.
The Elliott count is complemented by a EVA MENDEZ setup on the h4 chart .

As i am using a 120 point stop the position is in 1/3 size.

I am risking 40 base points .

Tom and I have reviewed money management in whichwaytoday and i will implement a similar system here when i get the time away from flying and Elliott wave analysis. In Elliott, i laughted when an old trader told me, many years ago, that the first 10 years was the worst.
He was incorrect, its the first 25 years. After that its all downhill.
For real time analysis of indices and forex www.whichwaytoday.com

Have a great day.

Euro $

I posted a series of charts last week on the technical position of the euro $. Here i believe that the market is in the process of making a wave 1 down of a C wave .

Within this wave 1 down , the euro $ is charting an w5 of this w1. Within w5 of w1 there is a subwave of 5 waves and my analysis says that there is a w5 of a w5 of 1 of c to come . This is quite a mouthful i know.

I am waiting confirmation to short the euro$ and will get that with any luck at 800 am GMT.

Have a great trading morning.

$yen

I have been travelling. On Thurday last I mulled over closing the $ yen position but by the time I got to Cape Town the decision had been made for me. The position was closed on stop and a small profit locked in. The stop was at 91.10 and entry was 90.57 . This is a profit of 53 points on a 1/3 sized position. Thus another 18 full points.

I am presently in London and will be trading from here for the next two weeks.

All my intraday trades will be reported on www.whichwaytoday.com as they happen.

Good trading

$ yen

The $ yen has had a good night for us and is now trading at 91.63. This means we are in profit of 100 points, on a 1/3 size position. What is very pleasing is that its the seventh winner in a row. The stop is already above entry but i now wish to pull up the stop again.

Lets get the stop to 91.10. This locks in about 50 points of profit .

Have a great day

$ yen

The $ yen has broken up after a mixed day where the pair was held back by the fall in the euroyen. It is trading at 91.21 now and i wish to pull the stop up to 90.75. This will lock in a small profit and we are still in the game .

Lets sit another night.

Good trading.

$ yen

The $ yen is now trading at 91.17 . This is 60 points of profit on a 1/3 position.
Lets get the stop to entry at 90.57 and sit.

Have a great trading day.

$ yen

The $ yen is now trading at 90.96. Lets increase the stop to 90.25 and hold it overnight.

Good Trading

$ yen

I have selected the $ yen forex pair for my next trade.I am still watching the cable and sterling yen with interest. There is inflation numbers coming out of the UK this morning.

In the above chart of $ Yen, a daily view is shown .On the daily a falling wedge to a 38% retracement in evident. There is also a reverse divergence which is a part of my Eva Mendez setup.

I have had some confirmation that support is going to hold from the hourly chart .

I am going long the $ yen at market. I have got a price of 90.57 as i write. I have placed a protective stop 100 points below at 89.57 . As the stop is wide i am trading this in 1/3 size. This means i am risking 33 full points on this trade.

The initial target is 92.30 and the final objective is 95.00

Good trading

Sterling Dollar---Cable

The markets are closed in the US on Monday 18th of January, but will be trading everywhere else in the world. I would expect the N Y session to be a non event and i will probably not enter any swing trades untill Tuesday.

The cable looks very interesting.

On the daily chart above, the price has made a falling top and the stoch a rising top . This divergence pattern predicts a sell off in cable with a high hit rate . In my seminars it called an Eva Mendez setup. There are several other features ,which together with the divergence, make this pattern one of the most reliable in my toolbox.

On the daily, the price action is healthy for a sell as the market has charted out a bearish outside day. The stop on the daily is excessive and i will try to get a more elegant entry on the four hour chart. The potential move is many hundreds of points . I will report at the start of the London session on the technical situation on the four hour cable chart.

I am happy to report that the Elliott analysis on the Euro $ that I posted seems to be working out as stated.

Enjoy whats left of the weekend and good trading tomorrow.

Gbp/Yen

The sterling yen trade is finding support at a .618 retrace of the last upswing. The level is 147.86.

We are up 114 points.

Lets close the trade the trade at about 148.00 or as close as you can get.

This is a profit of 114/3 full points. That is 38 full points and my sixth profitable trade in a row .

I will account the score at the weekend .

Good Trading.

Gbp/Yen

The above pair is now trading at 148.30. We have 84 points of open profits which equates to 28 full points .

I am letting the position run, but pulling the stop to entry at 149.14.

We have now a free bet.

Have a great trading morning

GBP/YEN

The trade is moving in the fit and proper direction. The short was initiated at 149.14 and the pair is now trading at 148.60 .

I should like to move the stop a bit tighter to a level of 149.65 and leave the position overnight.
I shall consider adding to the position in the morning.

The risk is now 51 points /3 full points . The risk is now 18 full points .

Have a great evening.

Sterling Yen

The Gbpyen has confirmed a signal short on the four hour chart by way of a very useful barchart pattern . The best entry was at 149.30 .I missed this as I was at the gym.

I am shorting the Gbp/Yen at market 149.14 stop loss 150. 24 risking 110 points on a 1/3 of my normal position size . I am risking 11o points /3, which equals a risk of 36 full points .

Lets hope for a big one . I have waited long enough for it .

Good Luck

Sterling Yen

Gbp Yen has found resistance at a equidistant channel drawn as shown above . The forex pairs just love simple channels. I would like to see a high probability reversal bar chart pattern to confirm a short entry. I hope this will come this afternoon in the NY session.

Again patience is required

Euro/$

I am still waiting for entry signals from the $ yen and gbp yen. I will update the blog intraday when these occur. Its a game of patience .
Above I show a chart of the Euro$. Its a daily view and updates my thoughts of last Friday just before the payroll report. Then and now, I feel that there is a wave 5 to come as marked above, to complete the larger wave down. By my count in the euro$ ,we are just about to start w5 of 1 down of C. I explained the longer term count in the blog entry of last week.

US retail sales is the key report this afternoon .

Good Trading

$ Yen and Gbp Yen

I have watched Sterling Yen go up the chart all day. I mentioned the Fib fan last night and i include above,a four hour chart of its uncanny ability to calculate support and resistance levels.

The four hour chart shows the $ yen is sitting on Fib support and that Gbp yen has broken initial support and is now sitting a major resistance point.

Every molecule of me wants to short the hell out of both of them.

Many years of doing battle against the Yen crosses advises strongly against this .

I am waiting for the start of the London session for a signal. Trading is a game of patience. In the http://www.whichwaytoday.com/ live trading room , Tom and I trade the shorter time frames so if you want action that is a good place to look. Its not practical to report those trades here as they would be over, before most would have seen or read the post.

I hope we get a good four hour trade tomorrow .

Have a great evening