Euro$

The market has been sold very strongly at the PP which is 1.3660. On the m15 the euro has charted at popgun bar chart pattern which indices a fast move is coming. Its unfortunately not that hot in predicting the direction of the move:)))
I think that the euro should be shorted as near to 1.3660 as you can get with a stop at the R1 pivot which is at 1.3770
I dont think I will trade it myself. There is very solid support at 1.3600. If you trade it maybe ease out of a bit there .
Good Luck
David

Euro $

The flag like pattern is easy to see on the above h4 chart. The market fell and bounced of the support from this formation a few minutes ago.

The Daily Pivot is at 1.3660 and resistance from the 5e of the highs on the h4 chart is at 1.3683

The 62% retrace of the last range is also at 1.3660.

The high of the overnight range is at 1.3705 and thats probably where the market is headed.

Nothing done by me as yet.

We had some trouble at home last night. An armed robbery, so I am not in the best place this morning.

Be careful

David

The trading day

My trading day has helped to reinforce my normal belief that most breakouts are traps. I very rarely take them. I didnt last week and they all worked. Those of you that have been in markets for a while will know that the environment can be cruel.
No more breakouts. I take them at the level or dont bother.
The Euro$ should be shorted at these levels. Its late in the day and the markets will still be here in the morning. I will look for low risk high rewards trades in the morning. If they are there I will trade them . If not I will go and drink coffee and read the FT.
Have a fun evening
David

Losing trade analysis

The initial impression that I had at 800GMT was correct. This was, that I had missed the trade, at the correct level. However there was a bar chart pattern which has worked well for me in the past which I took.
The bar chart pattern failed and I got stopped exactly where I should have entered.
Not the best of mornings.
I will be back swing tomorrow.
David

Euro$

I have been stopped in this trade for a 125 point loss which equates to 1/2% of my account.
Back to square 1 on this experiment.

David

Euro $

I am short Euro$ from 1.3570 stop 1.3695 target 1.3400. I have risked 1/2% of my account on this trade. Boring I know.
Good luck

David

Euro$

Good Morning
The early bird got the worm today.
The exact sell was at 1.3690 a few hours ago. On the h4 we have a 2 bar outside reversal and a confirmed sell here.
The Market is trading at 1.3570. I am selling the euro$ here with a 125 point stop.

good luck
David

Euro $

A difficult day where the market was bogged down in a range. I made 11 points on the first trade and 20 points on the last trade which I have just closed.
Friday was a bad day to take off to watch rugby as there the trades followed through.
The best trades just go. They dont mess about. If I hang on to the trades that dont gallop then on many occasions I am personally guilty of "hoping and praying"
Getting out or reducing the position size of trades that dont perform is a big part of being consistent and it takes "behaviour modification" as the Phantom of the Pits would say.
At 409 GMT all can get out, if you wish ,at better levels than I did.
Have a great evening.
One week into this experiment and up 131 points.

Euro $

On the shorter term 5 and 15 minute charts the Euro$ is stuck in a sideways consolidation and has been bought at around the 1.36 level three times this afternoon.
As I repeatedly said last week "the best trades just go your way without fuss" This one is starting to fuss.
It looks as if is going to test the tops for weak hands once more.
Its a few minutes after 400GMT and I can get out of this trade for 20 points including the spread.
I am closing the trade at 45. A 20 point profit.

Euro$

Its 1218 GMT and as I suspected the market has been taken higher to remove those short with tight stops. Experienced shorts feeding on the liquidity of many small stop losses.
As I write the market is sitting at 1.3665. The daily pivot is at 1.3707 and it can certainly get there.
I will trade it short here at 1.3665 with a stop at 1.3745. Again size your position so as no more that 1/2 % is at risk. This is a h4 trade and I wont look at it again until 4pm GMT.
The target is 1.3420
Good Luck
I am off to the gym
David

intraday trading

I think its impossible to trade short term and report the trades on here. From now on I will just do what I said I would do and take the h4 trades. There just wasnt any I could see this morning.
Even now everyone can get out square.
I have made three trades here and an up 111 points.
I will review the situation at 1200GMT
Good trading
David

Euro $

I have exited the position with 11 points profit

Didnt like the gap

Hope you got something

Euro $

The position is up about 25 points. It needs to get a move on now. Its getting towards the US open and without doubt will go up to run any obvious stops.
Watching the market closely. This wasnt a H4 trade as there was no signal at 800GMT. I took the trade based on the trend and a m5 pattern.
Good trading
David

Euro $

The target for the trade is 1.3425.

In summary short the euro $ at 1.3628 stop 1.3705 target 1.3425
NO pending orders

Good Luck

David

Euro $

I have shown the h4 chart pointing out resistance with the horizontal line. The m5 chart shows the market rising in a wedge which is bearish. My order is still in place although I am thinking of getting in at market. Nothing done as yet. Very quiet morning after Fridays excitement.

The market is trading at 1.3628. Based on the rising wedge on the m5 and the hard trend down the page I am selling the Euro $ here. I am short at 1.3628 with a stop at 1.3705. Please dont risk any more than 1/2 % of your account in the trade. REMOVE the other order.

good luck

David

Euro $

The 1.3622 level has been exceeded by 2 points on my charts. I think we can get up to 1.3650 in this move. This would allow the gap open to fill and its also a resistance level on the h4 chart.
However below 1.3580 the Euro $ looks weak with a target of 1.3438.
I am placing an order SELL STOP EURO $ 1.3553 , STOP LOSS 1.3625 , TARGET 1.3438.

Good luck
David

Euro$

The trends on the longer term charts (hourly and four hourly ) are all down but the m15 charts is suggesting a bounce. The macd is divergent with price and the market is trading 100 points below the daily pivot at 1.3704.

I favour a push up from here and then the longer term trend will resume. The high of the overnight range is 1.3622 and I would expect the market to exceed this level before falling.

Nothing done and watching.

Good Trading

David

Friday morning 9th September

I missed the trade in the Euro$ yesterday afternoon. The market just fell on Trickets comments with no warning via the bar chart patterns that I follow for entries.
There was a break south of a 123 pattern I suppose that could have been used.
The trends on the h4 chart all support further dollar strength again the pound and the Euro. The Dow is beating out a turning point and the futures are confused at the moment.
My attention is on the World Cup opening this morning and I suspect a big part of the London market will be focused on the same. No traffic in Johannnesburg this morning. No doubt a bout of flu is going around.
Good Trading
David

News Day

I have decided to stand aside today. At 1200 GMT the markets seems range bound in the four hour time frame awaiting some direction from US policy makers. It will still be there tomorrow.
For Elliott people I still feel that there is a wave 5 down to be completed in the Dow. At present we seem to be charting out a wave 2 of a wave 5. This means that there is a wave 3 down about to start in the next day or so. The Euro$ will follow it down.
Good Trading
David

Big news day

Good morning. There is the BOE decision and the ECB decision on interest rates today. The ECB is of interest. Later we have Mr Obama,s speach.
I will stand aside until at least 1200 GMT.

Good Luck today
David

Euro $

A very frustrating day. Difficult to hold it overnight as everyman and his dog will have their stop above the high of the h4 reversal bar. This is where the liquidity will be and baring a meltdown this level will be attacked in the East or at the London open.
The difference between the good and the bad is taking a small loss. They should just go our way quickly. If they dont positions should be closed or the size of them reduced.
Please read the "phantom of the pits" before bed. Its on Tom,s site www.tradertom.com
I will be around in the morning and if their is anthing to trade I will trade it.
125 points yesterday and -25 today.
have a great evening
David

Euro$

The trade is going nowhere. The best trades like the trade yesterday just go your way without fuss. I have probably allowed this trade to run far too long.
The Dow has pusher higher over the last few minutes and carried about 20 points of profit with it.
My trade is 25 points underwater at present and I am taking the loss.
have fun

David

Euro$

At 1200 GMT the four hour chart has produced a bearish 2 bar outside reversal. This is confirmation of the short position that I took hours ago which has done nothing as yet. As I write the trade is up 12 points. There is nothing I can do, to reduce the stop which is at 1.4135.
Lets sit.
I will comment on the trade during the afternoon. There is no news today and I am sure the Euro$ will take its direction from the Dow open.
Good Luck
David

Euro$

The ball is in, the game is on.
I am filled.
David

Euro $

Its slightly after 800GMT. This is not a h4 signal as there is not a signal as yet.
Euro $ sell stop 1.4045 stop loss 1.4135 target 1.3910
Please use no more than 1/2 % of your account size on any one trade.
Remove the order at 1200 GMT if not filled.
Good Luck
David

Euro$

The Euro$ has gone back as I suspected and am glad that we got out yesterday. At present the market is sitting on the daily pivot at 1.4092. My philosophy here is to take trades confirmed by some market action. At present the m15, m30 and hourly trends are up. There is no confirmation of a trade at 800 Gmt in the direction of the four hour trend which is the time frame that I wish to trade here.
If this should change I will post the trade. Many just sell the PP and that is a good plan. The conservative 56 yr old I am likes to see at least the m15 going in the direction of the trade.
Old traders and bold traders, just no old bold traders. I remain flat in forex.
have fun
David

Euro$

In this Blog which is focused on longer term trades I will initiate trades at 800GMT and at 1200 GMT. At 1600GMT I will make a decision as to whether profits or losses should be taken or the position held overnight.
The Euro $ trade has gone well but I worry about holding it overnight. The stop is at entry at 4115 but the 62% retracement of todays move is above this. A rally overnight and our stop will be too close. I dont like to move stops. Moving stops is like going on a diet and having just one beer. Fairly soon the diet is gone.
As I write the position is up 125 points. I am banking the 125 points now. We can re enter tomorrow. A small winner as the position size was small but a winner.
I will be back at 800 GMT
Have fun
David

euro $

The trade that I initiated a few minutes ago is up 75 points as I write and trying to get through the low of the day. I am pulling my stop to entry and letting it run. Its a small position for me so I wont take partial profits as my philosophy is to start small and add to winners. This may not always be the case.
Stop on my euro$ is at entry. We have a free bet.
good trading
david

euro $

The Euro dollar has given a bearish shooting star confirmation of a short position on the four hour chart. The ranges are enormous and thus the position size will be tiny. I am risking 1/2% of my account on the initial position size.

I am selling the Euro$ now at 1.4115 with a 150 point stop.

Good trading

David Paul

Euro $

Hi Everyone.

I am not involved in the day to day of http://www.whichwaytoday.com/ and have more time available to post here from time to time. The Euro$ weekly above shows a rising wedge on the weekly chart. The forex markets went crazy earlier as the Swiss intervened and this may have given us a very good entry short of the Euro $ for a move which could be substanial.

Last week the pair made a 2 bar outside reversal bar chart pattern on the weekly and the weekly action is a range expansion bar.

The short term trends are still up and I think we should wait until at least the m15 chart turns down.

I will try and post my entry here if the market confirms my thinking.

Good trading

David