Euro Chf

Hi Everyone

I have looked around the charts for hours and nothing is "talking" to me, save the Euro Chf.

I know that we ran for cover out of there on Friday morning. The market has retested the falling wedge and I shall be looking at it in detail for a trade on Monday morning. The chart is shown above.

Untill the morning

Good night

David

Euro Chf

Hi All

I post the chart of the Euro $. It looks bearish to me and I think this will effect my euro chf. Its a classic bear flag.

The Euro chf is trading at 1.3578. I am closing the position now.

Lets protect capital at all costs

David

Euro Chf

Hi Everyone
The Euro Chf trade is still running. It is exactly where we got in at yesterday. I am holding it for the moment. I will post again at 800 GMT if I feel the trade should be removed .

Have a great day
David

Euro chf

Hi Everyone
I entered the Euro Chf at 1.3572. Its trading at 1.3598 at present. It is fine. I will look at it at about 0500 GMT and post.
Have a great evening
David

Euro Chf

Hi Again
The target on the Euro Chf is 1.3775.
David

Euro Chf

Hi Everyone

The Euro Chf has confirmed a BUY signal . Its trading at 1.3572 and I have bought it at this level. The stop loss is 100 points at 1.3472.

Lets see how we do.

Good luck. I will update this at 1600 GMT.

David

Euro Chf

Hi Everyone

The euro swiss looks very oversold. Its falling in a wedge and showing bullish normal divergence on the h4. The hourly is about to confirm a buy signal at 1300 GMT.

I will shout if this confirms a buy signal.

Good trading

David

CAD

Hi Everyone
My analysis has proved much better than my trading in the Cad. It has moved as forecast. It moved very late in the day on Monday and Tuesday past for me. On both days the move got going at about 500 pm South African time and I just simply missed it.
My time forecast on Cable was for for a high to come in last weekend. The cable has sold off since then and is now in the process of what looks to be a "right shoulder" on the four hour chart.
Let me scan around the markets and I will report at 800 GMT.

Have a great trading day.
David

CAD

Hi Everyone

The Cad has confirmed support at the lower trendline of the wedge detailed earlier. It is late in the trading day and I will wait for a pullback overnight to enter the position. For those of you who have taken the http://www.whichwaytoday.com/ trading workshop the reversal pattern is a 2 bar outside reversal. Its shown above.

The Cad is also showing a classic Elliott pattern. In the other chart above you can see an impulse wave northwards. Within this, there are 5 waves which are quite easy, for once, to see. The market then pulls back in the classic ABC pattern as I have detailed. Those of you who have studied Elliott will see 5 waves within wave A, 3 waves within B and 3 waves in C. This is a very bullish pattern and if successful the target is a long way north. Lets focus on a decent entry tomorrow morning. I shall be looking at m15 and h1 charts for an entry.

Good Trading

David

CAD

Hi Everyone

Trades on the four hour chart are far and few between at the moment. I have heard a few traders blaming the lack of movement on Royal Ascot last week.

I include a potential trade setup on the Cad. Its falling in a wedge pattern and the market is at suppport.

The target line is shown. There is also a Elliott based motivation for the trade which I will include in a later post. I will be waiting for a candle pattern on the h4 to confirm the sentiment has changed here. Nothing done as yet.

Good trading

David

Thursday 17th June 2010

Hi Everyone
I am afraid that I picked the wrong time to start a blog on 2-3 day trades. For the last week they have been very scarce. For the last 10 days the major forex pairs have been in a range and I have not seen the type of high probability trade that I wish to report here. Dont worry the trades will come along when they are ready. Lets make sure we are.
I am still happy with my analysis on the Cable and Cad.
I traded twice today in the www.whichwaytoday.com live trading room and made 46 points in both. In the first I was guilty of taking my profits far to quickly.
Until tomorrow.
Have fun.
David

Forex Confusion

Hi Everyone.
Its been a confused day in the forex. Tom and I made a few points profit in the www.whichwaytoday.com live trading room.
The best thing to have done was to stand aside. Thats been my plan all day. The analysis from cable last night and the CAD on Sunday still stands.
The market is still making up its mind on whether the risk trade is on or off. Lets just wait and let it do just that.
Have a great evening.
I hope its warmer where you are, than it is in Johannesburg.
David

another forecast

Hi Everyone

I have done another Elliott based forecast on Cable . Its based on the four hour/ daily chart and again, as with the Cad, its favouring $ strength. Probably not tomorrow. Read below very carefully please.

Its far far too early to do anything and as I have shown, cable can easily punch to 1.5020. The equidistant channel that I have drawn, shows resistance at the 50 % retracement at 1.4870. Cable can easily hug the channel up to 1.5020. That is a mighty round number. At the o.618 level it would be a perfect Gartley 222 short.

Those of you who have taken my class will be able to construct my TIME LINE. It says the top of this thrust up, ie wave C, if my count is correct, will occur at 0400 GMT on the 18th of June.

This points to the 0.618 retracement at 1.5020 being THE LEVEL. Lets trade the market not the forecast. Trading the four hour chart needs lots of patience. I was guilty of rushing the CAD yesterday and paid the price.

Anyway its late here in South Africa and very cold. Its a holiday here tomorrow but I will be trading the morning session at least.

I am off to bed .

I will be back at 0800 GMT

Have fun

David

June 15th 2010

Hi Everyone
I still dont see any high probability setups around using the four hour chart. The market is deciding and cant make up its mind as to whether the risk trade is back on again or off. Lets just watch for another four hour candle.
Nothing to do
best wishes
David

June 15th 2010

Good Morning
The forex markets are unsure this morning. The move up of yesterday looks in doubt with Sovereign debt issues to the fore, once again, in Europe.
I see the CAD looks much better this morning for a long position. I am glad that I got yesterday as we would have been stopped for the whole risk amount. Less to make up in my next trade. I am leaving the next trade until at least 1200 GMT.
Have fun
David

performance

Well that poor trade takes the performance down to a mere 35 points for 10 days trading. That,s in the nature of the game.
I wont trade again today and will be back online tomorrow morning.
Have Fun
David

$ Cad

Hi Guys. The $ cad is not going well. I entered at 1.0328. Its trading at 1.0265 now and i am closing the position for a loss of 63 points
best wishes
David

$/CAD

Good Morning
Its 800 GMT. The $ cad has confirmed a long trade as per my analysis yesterday.
I am buying the $/Cad at 1.0328 . Stop loss 1.0228 . The stop is 100 points. This means the bet size is 2.50$ per point .

Good Luck
David

The week ahead - 14th -18th June 2010

H4

D1

Weekly

Hi Everyone.

Last week was a difficult week for the 2-3 day trades that I am aiming to catch in this Blog. The markets in my opinion were making corrective type patterns against the prevailing trend. I posted a chart on Friday morning of the Euro$ which seems to have broken down as predicted. I shall look for a elegant entry on Monday morning at 800 GMT. The Eva Mendez pattern as presented on Friday is still intact and a stronger dollar looks very probable.

The $ Cad looks as if a similar trade is setting up. I am going to detail this below as it will give you an indication as to how I look at the various timeframes to spot a high probability trade.

On the weekly chart the $/CAD has made a 5 wave pattern up the chart, taking out the last significant high, followed by a 3 wave pattern down. The market then stops and consolidates at a .786 retracement of the 5 wave upmove, in what looks to me as a partially completed inverted head and shoulders reversal.

On the daily chart, the more recent action shows that the pullback over the last few days is a 3 wave structure exactly to a .618 retrace of the total up swing. I also notice a Eva Mendez setting up, with no confirmation, on the daily. Those of you with experience in Fib and geometry will also spot that the market has stopped its fall at a 0.786 retrace of the range measured from the last significant low. Thus we have a confluence of Fib support measured from two differing ranges. There is also a text book Gartley 222 in process.

The next chart is the four hour, from which I propose to take a signal, if it comes. In the four hour chart I have tried to show the confluence of Fib support, but I admit the chart is noisy for the untrained eye. Also I observe my favourite pattern the falling wedge which is bullish. I have marked the target line from the falling wedge, which approximates the old high. This is 500 points away.

I dont see any signal from the h4 as yet. I will be looking for a bar chart or a candle pattern to enter the trade. The Fib support is about 60 pips lower and I would expect the market to test that again before any turn. Lets just wait for what I hope will be a big trade.

Lets trade the market next week, not the forecast

Enjoy whats remaining of the weekend

David

Morning June 11th 2010

Good Morning

I didnt post yesterday as there was nothing to do on this or any other timeframe. The markets seem to be beating out a corrective pattern and within this there is very little order.

I think that the euro $ is at resistance and should fall from here. I havnt got any signal and will do nothing untill I get such. I include the Eva M which is setting up at present. NB nothing done.

I will be back at 800 GMT

Have fun

David

Morning June 10th 2010

Good morning everyone.
The Blog is 98 points ahead in one week of trading. Yesterday was disappointing. I got caught on the "wrong side". I have scanned throught the markets and dont see any high probability trades at this point. The volatility in early morning trading in the Euro$ has been hugh.
Lets see how it looks at 800 GMT
Have a good trading day

David

Sterling Yen

Hi Guys
As you have seen I have been stopped out of Sterling Yen for a 90 point loss.
It was a trade I took based on a hourly chart. Anyway no looking back.
I will be back looking for longer term trades from the four hour chart tomorrow morning.
Have a good evening.
David

sterling Yen

Hi Guys
I have been filled short in Sterling yen

Good luck all
David

performance

I am up 188 points since last thursday. I will work out the portfolio increase when I get time this evening
Have fun
David

sterling yen

The sterling yen stop is 100 points to make the sums easy. 1% of our account is 250$. the bet size is then 250/100. This is 2.5$ per point .
Sorry forgot to say that .
So in summary a SELL STOP in sterling yen to sell if the market gets below 131.80. Stop of 132.70 if filled . Target of 130.70 ..

Good luck
David

sterling yen

Hi Guys ...
Place a sell stop in sterling yen to sell if the market goes down to 131.80 ...stop upon entry 132.70..Target 130.70 ...

good luck .
David

Morning June 9th 2010

Good Morning everyone.

The sterling yen trade moved in our direction very fast yesterday afternoon. I expected in Elliott speak a C wave up which didnt materialise. When ,what I clasify as windfall profits, occur, I pretty much always take them.

Sterling yen is still sitting on the nexkline from the h4 head and shoulders reversal and it still looks as if it wants to break. The neckline is shown above.

Presently the market is charting out a Arrow pattern for those who have taken our classes in S Africa or London.

Lets see how it looks at 800 GMT when hopefully all the morning games are over.

Have fun

David

Sterling Yen

Hi All
The Sterling Yen has given us windfall profits this afternoon.
I am closing this position now at 130.80 and booking a 140 point profit in the trade.
I hope you made some. There is a long way to go in this trade. I will reenter tomorrow.

Have a great evening.
I will report again tomorrow morning

David

sterling Yen

Hi Guys
In the heat of the moment i forgot to wish you all luck with the trade. I will look at it and comment at 1600 GMT
best wishes
David

1200 GMT June 8th 2010

Sterling yen has broken the M15 neckline in style and nearly broken the H4 neckline as shown above. If this goes there is a 500 point downside target.

I am looking to the M15 for an exact entry. Its trading now at 132.20.

The trade needs a 150 point stop.

Remember the bet size will be 1% of your acccout divided by 150. This accout is 25000% plus a tiny amout from Friday. 1% is 250 $. Thus my bet size is 250/150 dollars per point.

I am selling the pound yen at 132.17 with the position size as above with a stop at 133.70

900 GMT June 8th 2010

Hi Guys
There were no trades confirmed at 0800 but the market has moved quickly in the last hour. Please log in at 1200 GMT as I feel we will have a trade from the four charts confirmed at that time. I traded the pound yen intraday but got out much too early. It was a profit and I suppose I should be happy about that.
Best wishes
David

June 8th 2010

Good morning

The biggest problem in trading the longer time frames is dealing with periods of inactivity such as yesterday. I personally traded the shorter timeframes twice yesterday and reported both in the http://www.whichwaytoday.com/ live trading room. The first trade was scratched at breakeven and the second in tha afternoon made 30 points. There were no longer term trades.

This morning my analysis shows that the $ and Yen are strong showing that the risk aversion apparent in the market is still around.

On paper short the Euro Yen makes the most sense, with short the Pound Yen and short the Euro$ coming next. This analysis uses my Relative strength Matrix technique which I teach in the courses in SA and London. It answers the question "What to trade" not when to trade.

The Pound Yen has broken and tested a channel on the h4 and is presently charting out a head and shoulders reversal on the m15 ,which HAS NOT broken as yet. The charts are shown above. The Yen crosses have the personality of very upset ex wives. Be careful. I am waiting until 800 GMT for any entries.

Speak at 800 GMT

Have Fun

David

evening of June 7th 2010

Hi Guys
Its been a quiet day on the forex markets. In the Four hour chart strategies that I follow there are no high probability trades tonight. Lots of marginal trades but i intend to ignore those. Dont worry the good ones will come to us .

Have a great evening
David

euro$

Hi Guys

Above is a 30 minute chart of the Euro $ . If you look at the chart i sent this morning you will see that I marked in a wave 4 and then a wave 5 down to the target of 1.1805 odd. In the above we have Reverse Divergence on the m30 but there remains the possibility of another leg up which would be withing the rising wedge formation shown. Its trading at 1.1961 presently, with a target as presented early this morning of 1.1800. The time taken for the retracement is exactly 62% of the time taken to fall on Friday. That bodes well for a fall this afternoon.

I am watching the market and will post any trade.

There are no obvious trades on the h4 chart.

have a good trading afternoon

David

$ yen

Hi guys

This is a useful pattern in the $ yen. Support has become resistance. Lets wait for a confirmation bar at 1200 GMT.

I dont see anything to trade this morning on the longer timeframes. In fact the forex market looks quite dead after Fridays action.

David

June 7th 2010

Good morning everyone.

The 1.618 extension of the last pull back on the Euro$ is at 1.1800. I think the pair is heading there but have no new signal which gives me an elegant entry. I see similar patterns in cable and in the EuroYen as well. I will wait to 800 GMT and look for a signal.

Presently I observe that cable gapped down at the open and has filled that gap as I write. Those who held my trade from Thursday evening should be very happy.

The G20 meeting came out with a comment on quantitative easing and I am interested to see how this is taken by the market at the London opening. No Action.

Until 800 GMT.

If I get an entry signal from the hourly chart before then, I will shout, although thats not the objective of this blog.

Have a good trading day

David

The final bell on Unemployment Friday

Hi Everyone.

I have been watching the market action around the NFP for a long time. This afternoon when I returned from the gym it was amazing to see the hard move down in advance of the report. That was quite new to me . I got out of the cable short as that event spooked me a little. In hindsight it was the wrong thing to do. Again my analysis has proved to be better that my resolve to sit.

The daily chart as I posted yesterday was shouting sell me. There will be plenty of trades in this campaign of mine. I hope that you got a few pips today. I know some pulled down the stop to entry as I got out and thats just great. Well done guys .

There are two falling wedges on the Euro$. One on the h4, which looks to have been broken and the situation on the m15 chart above. The upper purple line is the trendline which defines the wedge on the h4. If I were a betting man I would bet that the market will rally on Monday morning to the upper purple trendline on my chart. Lets just chill and enjoy the weekend. I will shout hard and loud when its time to do something.

Remember my objective is to call trades which last a few days. I plan to enter with a small 1% position size and add as it goes our way.

Later in the weekend I will post charts on the probable trends next week.

Have fun

David

Unemployment Friday

Hi Again
I had to be brief in the last post to get my decision on cable out there asap. When we take this live I think a Text service will be necessary. We are still pondering on that. Any views would be welcomed.
The trade made 48 points and I am pleased to start with a winner even if its a tiddler. I would normally let them run but felt it important to bank this windfall profit ahead of the months biggest report.
I wont trade on the Blog again untill Monday morning.
Have a great weekend.
Tom and I will be trading in the www.whichwaytoday.com room this afternoon.
Have fun
David

Cable trade

Hi Everyone
The cable trade has moved in my favour. Its trading now at 1200 GMT at 1.4562. It seems the reason for the fall is a profit warning at a French bank. The latter is unconfirmed.
I am banking this windfall small profit in advance of the NFP report. Its a small profit but still a profit. Done exactly at 1200 GMT .
First one under the belt
David

Unemployment Friday 800 GMT

Hi again
Well my cable trade is still underwater and trading at 4632 at the moment. Its just fine.
The Euro$ is still above the 1.2150 critical level. On the shorter term charts the Euro is climbing slowly after yesterdays hard fall. This creep up the chart looks very corrective to me. As i write the Euro is toying with the overnight high. Similarly the Euroyen has fallen from resistance yesterday and presently is charting out a weak corrective upthrust.

I am holding the cable trade with the stop as per the trade initiation and will make a final decision as to whether I will hold through the NFP at 1200 GMT.
Apart from that lets just chill.
Have a good morning.
David

4th June 2010-Unemployment Friday

Good Morning everyone

My feeling that I would get a better level to short the cable was correct. I am short from 4610 with the market now trading at 4624. Just fine.

The Euro$ tried to break down through the inside bar pattern last night but failed. Without doubt this is waiting for the news this afternoon. While highly paid analyst,s pour over the details of the US unemployed, I have no doubt that the unemployed are safely tucked up in bed.

A h4 close below 1.2150 would be a signal to look for an entry short. If we get that sign, I shall probably only look for an entry next week. I include the Euro$ chart and the multiple inside bar/candle pattern.

I will chat again at 800 GMT.

Good Trading

David

1600 GMT June 3rd 2010

Hi All
I posted a cable chart on the blog this morning and went into the rationale of shorting cable in the www.whichwaytoday.com trading room. We made 5 trades in the room today. All had modest objectives and we has 4 winners and a breakeven trade. The techniques we employ and teach remain significantly more robust that our strength to put them into action.
There is a Eva Mendez on the daily chart of cable and the four hour chart has turned down.
I wish to short this pair in advance of the NFP which may be dumb but thats what the chart says.
As I have been writing the cable has fallen hard. The euro$ and $ chf are consolidating within the multiple inside bar patterns mentioned earlier today. The stop on this trade in cable will be at 1.4750. I use a 1% position sizing model so 1% of my 25000$ is 250$. This is the most I will lose on any trade. The stop will be approximately 150 points if I enter now, This means my bet size will be 250/150 $ per point. Thats about 1.50$ per point or 1.50 pounds per point if you are trading in that currency. I have no doubt that the cable will rise overnight and that we will get a better fill in the morning.
The rally in cable has begun as I write. As I write its trading at 1.4610 bid . I am shorting it at this level with a stop at 1.4760.
As calculated above the bet size is 1.50$ per point on a 25000$ account.
Anyway thats the first trade initiated and thats a good feeling. Any reading this later should be able to get a better fill. If you get a worse fill then remember the stop needs to be at the same place. Just trade a smaller position. Whats the hurry. You can only drink one beer at once.
The key level for this trade is 1.4550.
have a great evening
David

High Noon GMT June 3rd 2010

Hi again
Its probably not been the best time to start this blog, in the run up to NFP tomorrow afternoon. Again the Euro$ and $CHF are stuck in a random consolidation. Cable is still setting up. The EuroYen is at the top of a channel but has not as yet given a signal. Lets sit on our hands for another while in this timeframe. In the www.whichwaytoday.com we have had four trades today. Three winners and one breakeven trade. We are very happy with that. Untill 400 GMT.

Have fun
David

June 3rd 2010 0800 GMT

Hi. the euro$ and $ chf are still stuck within multiple inside bar patterns. I like the look of a trade in cable but its a few bars to early as yet . No high probability trades on the h4 chart to report.

During the UK night there was a trade long in Euro yen, on the h4. I missed it. There will be lots more.

For those who have done my course, I include the Eva Mendez possible trade short in cable

I wil be back at 1200 GMT

have fun

David

Morning of June 3rd 2010

Hi Everyone
Nothing has changed much on the h4 time since last evening. I will update and post any possible trades at 800 GMT.
Cable is showing a potential Eva Mendez trade short which needs confirmation on the h4. Thats a few bars away. Untill 800 GMT.
Have a great day

David

evening round up

Hi Again
The forex market is making a decision for us. Its the run up to the June NFP report. The market is expecting a good number. It would not be strange to see the Euro$ to meander sideways untill then. At the moment the euro and its sister the $chf is within a MULTIPLE INSIDE bar chart pattern. The pattern has now 7 times 4 hour inside bars. We just need to let it break and go with flow. From the hourly chart I was expecting a bounce this morning which did not occur although in the www.whichwaytoday.com room we still got out at a small profit. Profits are like aeroplane landings. Anyone you can walk away from is a good one. In terms of the h4 chart in Euro $ there is nothing to do this evening. The situation is the same for the $ CHF. Any trade against the dollar is strongly against the daily and h4 trend as measured by my 89sma. We need to be careful to say the least.
Cable is trending up on the H4 but down on the daily. The rally on the h4 over the last week seems corrective to me and it looks weak. There is a Doji candle on the daily, assuming nothing changes between now and midnight GMT. This is one hell of an assumption. No action in cable.
$yen is at the top of a corrective channel in my opinion. Apart from selling this resistance I see no confirmed trades in this pair. In the majors there is no action to be taken.
Time for a beer.
I will report in the morning. It will be brief as thats a busy time for me. However it will to to the point and hopefully useful and waffle free. Please give me a shout on traderdavy@gmail.com if you have any sujjestions on how this blog should be played.
Have fun
David

The new season begins

I am been busy trading and travelling and sadly this trading blog has been overlooked for about two months. I am determined to get back into the swing of posting my longer term trades as they occur. These are mostly taken from the four hour chart. Sometimes i cannot resist a trade taken from the daily chart. Its these trades that i wish to report in this blog. I dont want to post lots of charts and meaningless analysis. The net is awash with that material and lots of "ifs" and "buts". I will post my analysis as briefly as i can and report on my entry levels, stop and position sizing.
The four hour chart starts at 0000 GMT and makes new bars/candles at 0400, 0800, 1200 , 1600 and 2000 GMT. Most trades occur at 0800 GMT and 1200 GMT. To make this work I shall try and post first thing, 800 GMT, 1200 GMT and 1600 GMT. First thing for me is about 0500 GMT. On many days this will be brief, if there are no high probability trades available. This is the case this evening. If I am travelling or conducting a seminar I will post that as well. The market will be there when I get back. These are trades that i take myself and if my years in this have taught me anything useful, its patience. If you havnt got patience to wait for the plums then you are in the wrong line of work. If you wish to trade more aggressivly the www.whichwaytoday.com trading room will be of much more use to you.
I use a 1% position sizing model in my trading. Very conservative I know, but thats me. There are old traders and bold traders, but no old bold traders. I will start with a 25000$ account and see how we go. Each trade will have its own unique stop loss based on the volatility of the chart under scrutiny. I will work out the bet size for each trade, the entry point, stop and target.
It will be fun.

Have a great evening.
David