Sunday, March 14, 2010

Sterling Yen




On Friday i felt that the Euro$ had still some upside and this proved to be the case. The chart shows that the Euro$ can easily get to the 38% retracement of the last daily range at about 1.3870.


I am however looking at Sterling yen this morning. The trade has not fired as yet but it has the kind of risk to reward ratio that excites me.
The daily chart of Sterling Yen shows a reverse divergence setup short. On the h4 it is clear that the market is charting out a rising wedge pattern which has stopped at a 50% retracement of the last range. This is a dangerous and very tricky animal and I am not discounting another push up before a probable fall.
I am waiting for a confirmation pattern from the bar chart. The target is about 500 points south.
I will post if I observe a signal.
Good Trading

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Euro$ and Cable


Good Morning


The Euro$ has risen as suggested yesterday in a very tight range towards resistance as defined by the channel on the daily chart.


The Gpb$ also gained yesterday and has charted out a corrective rising wedge pattern on the hourly chart. The market stopped at a 0.618 retrace of the last range.


I am looking for confirmation on both pairs of a trade betting that the $ will strengthen today.

If I get a signal i will report it here during the day.


Good Trading

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Euro $



I have shown the channel which seems to be defining the down move in the Euro $ pair. In Elliott wave talk i feel that we are in a wave 4 flat corrective wave and that a small rally to resistance will take place, prior to a last wave 5 down . This should get the Euro $ down to about 1.31. The channel resistance is at about 1.3730 and i would expect this rally to happen today. Its not a move that i would trade in this forum but will be waiting for a chance to get short above 1.3700. When i get a valid signal i will report it here.

The Dow stock index looks very weak and has charted out a very bearish rising wedge in the past few weeks. I would expect the Dow to fall soon and the Euro$ to fall in tandem. Stock market weakness and dollar strength.

Good Trading